We turn our attentions to Group F which looks like being a real dust up between four countries that are hardly shrinking violets. While one team are expected to walk it the fight for the runners up position would be quite a dust up.
Group F fixtures
- 15 June 2014 – Argentina v Bosnia-Herzegovina, Estadio do Maracana, Rio de Janeiro, 23:00 (BBC)
- 16 June 2014 – Iran v Nigeria, Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, 20:00 (BBC)
- 21 June 2014 – Argentina v Iran, Estadio Mineirao, Belo Horizonte, 17:00 (ITV)
- 21 June 2014 – Nigeria v Bosnia-Herzegovina, Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba, 23:00 (BBC)
- 25 June 2014 – Nigeria v Argentina, Estadio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre, 17:00 (ITV)
- 25 June 2014 – Bosnia-Herzegovina v Iran, Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, 17:00 (ITV)
Argentina
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History/expectations – winners in 1978 and 1986, and finalists in 1990, Argentina have a considerable pedigree. That history might create some pressure particularly for Lionel Messi who has achieved more in club football than Diego Maradona, but has not achieved the same level of success with his country.
This time round they have one of the strongest teams in the tournament, with enough attacking depth to leave Carlos Tevez out, and must be considered one of the favourites.
How did they qualify – South American qualification is very straightforward to understand. Every country on the continent plays each other home and away and the top four countries qualified automatically. Uruguay in fifth then had to play off against Jordan from the Asian qualifiers. Argentina topped the qualifying table, but the process was not without incident.
Key player – The Argentinian midfield and forward line are a fantasy line up, so picking any of Sergio Aguero, Angel di Maria, Gonzalo Higuain, PSG’s Ezequel Lavezzi or Inter’s Rodrigo Palacios is possible. But I’m going for the blindingly obvious choice of Lionel Messi. He will wear Maradona’s 10 shirt, the captain’s armband and will bear the expectations of the nation. He is 26, the same that Maradona was in 1986. If he can link up effectively with the other great players, Argentina could be unbeatable. They are unlikely to be troubled in the group games or the last 16 so they have several games to play themselves into form.
Dark horse – Sergio Romero. We know less about the back five of the Argentinian team than the front six, with the exception of Pablo Zabaleta of Manchester City. And we know very little about the keepers in particular. That is partly because two of them have spent the season warming the benches of Serie A and Ligue 1.
Sergio Romero is the first choice Argentine keeper. Like Palace’s Julian Speroni he has a history of dodgy haircuts including the inevitable ponytail but unlike Jules, he can’t get a game for his club side Monaco. He is unlikely to be troubled in at least two of the group games, but he may prove an achilles heel later in the tournament.
As Palace fans we believe the best Argentinian keeper plays in London SE25 and there will be loads of us dying to say ‘told you so’ if manager Alex Sabella’s first choice keeper messes up.
Odds – Argentina are 4-1 on to win the group, and 9/2 second favourites for the whole thing, behind Brazil. This looks like being a straight forward group for Argentina. Their toughest game is likely to be the opener against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and even if they are not at their best they should qualify and remain untroubled until the quarter finals. While the defence is not the best in the tournament the midfield and forward could well be, and magical inspiration could come from a number of sources. I see them as a stronger side than Brazil.
Bosnia-Herzegovina
History – Bosnia-Herzegovina is a country of just over 4 million people and have qualified for the World Cup at only their fifth attempt. Bosnia-Herzegovina is a landlocked country, largely populated by Muslims and became independent after the gruesome break-up of the former Yugoslavia in the first half of the 1990’s.
How they qualified – They have improved at each qualifying tournament, reaching the play-offs in 2010 before losing to Portugal. A new generation of young players had emerged and were playing in France, Germany, Turkey and England.
Drawn in qualifying group G with Greece, Slovakia and Lithuania, Bosnia only dropped five points losing at home to Slovakia and drawing away to Greece. An attacking approach with the likes of Edin Dzeko, Vedad Ibsevic (of Stuttgart) gave them a large and crucial goal difference advantage over Greece, and automatic qualification.
Key Player – Several players had been brought up outside their home country as their families had fled Bosnia. That has resulted in a fascinating mix of diverse backgrounds but genuine commitment to their young nation.
Let us take Miralem Pjanic as an example. Born in Bosnia but raised in Luxembourg, he made his Ligue 1 debut as an attacking midfielder for Metz at 17 before moving to Olympic Lyonnais and playing Champions League football at the age of 18. Nicknamed ‘The Little Prince’ he has moved on again to play for a successful Roma side in La Liga. He speaks six languages and is only 24. That strikes me as pretty impressive. So is this goal, scored a few weeks ago in Serie A:
Dark Horse – Bosnia have progressed this far on the basis of having fine attacking players and a highly respected keeper in Asmir Begovic. Their defensive prowess will be tested against Argentina and again if they qualify for the knock-out stages. Manager Safet Susic has recently brought up Muhamad Besic to the squad. Besic was born in Germany and plays in Hungary for Ferencvaros. He has an emerging reputation as a man-to-man marker and may get the role of marking Messi (or Aguero or Di Maria) in the Argentina game.
Odds – Bosnia are 15/2 for the group and best odds for them overall are 200/1 (20th ranked). The best odds of 7-1 for Bosnia to reach the quarter-finals and they are 40-1 to reach the semi-finals. That quarter-final bet looks like an interesting one.
Iran
History/expectation – Iran have qualified for the tournament three times before. Their only victory at the World Cup finals came in 1998 when they beat the United States 2-1. I would imagine that win went down well.
For us oldies Iran’s most enjoyable appearance was on debut in 1978. England had failed to qualify while Scotland had overcome Wales to qualify and thought this formed a sound basis for winning the whole thing (see post script below).
Iran were very much the outsiders in the 1978 World Cup. Playing a country not from Europe or South America was like playing a non-league side in the FA Cup. In 1974 Zaire clearly didn’t even know the rules:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kfenai77-wg
How could Ally’s Tartan Army possibly fail against Iran? Well they could. Scotland followed a defeat against Peru with a 1-1 draw with Iran in front of 7,000 fans. It is of course easier to find Archie Gemmill’s legendary goal from the token victory over Holland in the final game, but let’s show you his role in Iran’s equaliser as he fails to tackle the scorer Danaei Fard:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LinwcRJmtyU
How did Iran qualify this time? Studying the qualification process shows that Iran is now a little more open to Western influence. After all the President Hassan Rouhani went to Glasgow University and spent four years there reminding the locals about the 1978 World Cup. The manager is ex-Manchester United assistant Carlos Quieroz and a number of their players come from emigre Iranians who have been playing around the globe.
The Asia-Oceania qualification process comes in several stages. After an initial win over the Maldives (who someone has to knock out), they eventually overcame Qatar, Lebanon and Uzbekistan to qualify along with South Korea.
Key player – Best known of the players is Fulham’s Ashkan Dejagah who has impressed scoring some useful goals in Fulham’s ultimately futile struggle. The star of the qualification process was Reza Ghoochannejhad who scored goals and impressed international scouts so much so that he ended up at … Charlton.
Dark horse – The busiest Iranian players are likely to be centre halves Jalal Hosseini and Amir Hossein Sadeghi. They will have a key role in keeping out Nigeria in the first game and then will have to master the onslaught of the Argentine stars in the second game. They lack a little bit of height and may really be tested when they come up against Edin Dzeko in the final game.
Odds – 50-1 for the Group and best odds are 3,000/1 (28th ranked). Keep your hands in your pockets.
Quieroz has a lot of international club and country experience and the players have broad experience. It is interesting that both Iran and Bosnia-Herzegovina have been able to pull back players from families who have moved away from the country. It just looks like the Iranian players experience is not at a high enough level. They are likely to be well organised having conceded few goals in qualifying.
They are likely to play a defensive formation familiar to Palace fans and looking to use Dejageh’s skill and pace on the break. Their best chance for a point may come in the opening game against Nigeria but they look set for a fourth place finish.
Nigeria
History – Nigeria first qualified for the World Cup finals in 1994 but have now qualified for five of six tournaments, missing out only in 2006. The performance of Cameroon in 1990 highlighted the progress of African football, and Nigeria arrived in the USA as a competitive team, not one making up the numbers. There were only three places for African sides in that tournament so qualification was fierce.
That 1994 side played some flamboyant football and had world class players like Finide George, Jay-Jay Okocha and keeper Peter Rufai who became familiar names subsequently. Nigeria won their group but found themselves against Baggio’s Italy in the last 16 and lost 2-1. That side then formed the core of the gold medal winning side at the 1996 Olympics.
Similar performance in topping group but losing in the last 16 in 1998 as well. They have not done so well since – here is a brief summary of their 2010 effort:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xdse43_amazing-yakubu-miss-nigeria-v-south_sport
Yes he really missed it!
How they qualified – African qualification started with 52 countries takes place in several stages culminating in five play offs where the winners progress to the final tournament. Nigeria were seeded and avoided the first round of qualifiers. They entered at the group stage as top seeds in a four team group alongside Kenya, Malawi and Namibia. As group winners Nigeria then progressed to the final play offs, where half the group winners are knocked out. In Nigeria’s case, they beat Ethiopia home and away. It is a brutal qualification process.
As they were qualifying for the World Cup, Nigeria became the Africa Cup of Nations champions. This should be a side with pedigree and great potential for the tournament. And yet, the squad doesn’t have stars. Good players, like forward Emmanuel Emenike and Jon Obo Mikel, but not stars. They have flair players, like Victor Moses and Peter Odimwingie, but none in the class of Okocha.
They do have a strong manager in Stephen Keshi, captain of the 1994 team, and are disciplined and perhaps better organised than previous teams. Despite being a young squad, they have players who have played in many different leagues around the world.
Key player – In the successful African Cup of Nations Jon Obi Mikel was the focal point of the team, playing in a more dynamic role than we are used to seeing him play for Chelsea. He seemed to enjoy the attention and could provide the leadership and flair that this team looks to be missing.
Dark horse – Although Nigeria have quite a young side, they have a very experienced quality goalkeeper, Vincent Enyeama, only 31 but a veteran who played against England in the 2002 World Cup.
Odds – 12-1 for the group and best odds for the tournament are 300/1 (23rd rank). Nigeria just don’t look like being a surprise team. To qualify for the last sixteen they probably need to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina in their second game. Both these countries will expect to beat Iran and will need to catch Argentina on a bad day to get anything. So that second game will be crucial.
Group Prediction
- Argentina
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Nigeria
- Iran
Argentina should win the group easily while the Bosnia-Herzegovina v Nigeria game should decide who comes second in the group. Bosnia seem to be on the up and should find it easier to create and take chances than the African champions
Going Forward
The two teams qualifying from Group F will play the Round of 16 games against the top two in Group E – Ecuador, France, Honduras, Switzerland. None of these teams should present any obstacle for Argentina, while Bosnia-Herzegovina might give likely opposition France a good game.
Post script
Scotland’s confidence in 1978 was highlighted by their World Cup song. Rod Stewart was one of the biggest pop stars in the world at the time and was and is still a football fanatic. His enthusiasm for football overcame any artistic doubts he should have had.
I give you “ole ola”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4bqACNrVqs
It was a hit, just not a big one.
