Amid the excitement of the Euro 2016 qualifiers this week came the release of a documentary film ‘I believe in miracles’ charting the five year rise of Nottingham Forest from a mid-table Second Division side to winners of the European Cup in successive seasons.
The film has an inevitable focus on manager Brian Clough, and assistant Peter Taylor. Clough was as charismatic as Jose Mourinho, then in his early forties, at the peak of his powers.
But in looking at and listening to previews of the film, I was struck by the fact that so many of the players who had played in the second tier were still playing a few years later in the European Cup final.
They did have some excellent players among that group – players like Viv Anderson and Tony Woodcock would go on to play many games for England, while Martin O’Neill and John Robertson became household names.
Clough added to that core with some smart signings – he bought England keeper Peter Shilton and forward Trevor Francis, but also under-rated (and cheaper) Scottish defender Kenny Burns.
Developing a side from a mix of local players and canny signings was a model that many other teams adopted at the time. Ipswich under Bobby Robson were perhaps the best example of this, while briefly the Palace ‘Team of the Eighties’ threatened to do something similar.
It seems impossible to think that this could be repeated now.
We all know the facts. The money available from domestic television, the Champions League and the wealth of the owners should mean that the winner of the Premier League will come from the top four last season, and that only Liverpool or Tottenham Hotspur could break into that top four.
But the first few weeks of this season have shown signs that the premise that only the big clubs can win the league could be challenged – perhaps not for the title, but you do not need to win the title to get in the Champions League.
The opportunity for teams outside the top six to progress exists because sides in the top six are forced to spend big, since selling clubs are aware of the huge financial resources at their disposal, and they do not always spend wisely.
The route to success would appear to be the same mix of building a team in the second tier then finessing it with a few additions. This is not dissimilar to the Forest approach, although there are less locally developed players these days.
Several clubs in recent years have bravely or stubbornly looked to keep the same team after promotion. Burnley last season and Bournemouth this season come to mind. But we know they are not challenging for the top half.
The strongest side to be promoted in recent years was the Southampton side, then managed by Nigel Adkins. They combined a strong youth set up (with the likes of Adam Lallana and Luke Shaw), great scouting (think Morgan Schneiderlin and Dejan Louvrin) and a couple of excellent cheap signings (Ricky Lambert and of course Jose Fonte).
They were too good though and the top clubs ripped the team apart. The fact that they have rebuilt so successfully so quickly is a miracle.
The model for breaking into the top four would appear to be having a solid promotion winning team, but without players too attractive for the poaching clubs, then supplementing them with a few quality players.
This was the Swansea City template a couple of seasons ago, when they were promoted in style then added Michu, who was amazing but for just one season.
Maybe this season it could be Palace, who have kept the core of the 2013 promotion winning side, although Saturday’s home defeat to West Ham United, might indicate we are a way off taking on Barcelona and Bayern Munich.
Maybe it could be Leicester City, who are keen to prove my prediction that they would be relegated was wrong. No-one else seemed that keen on taking Mahrez and Vardy off them after promotion and then unlikely survival, and yet Leicester have out-performed Chelsea and Liverpool this season.
With Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United in the top three, despite lapses in form, it just does not seem likely this season.
It seems more than a miracle would be needed for a club the size of Nottingham Forest to compete at such a fantastic level these days.
