Last week I looked at the top two thirds of the league, assessing the contenders for the Champions League spots and the challengers to break into the top six places, which included Palace.
This week I am in more of my comfort zone, assessing the relegation battle.
This season, I see it as three teams from seven between the four poorest survivors from last season and the three promoted clubs. Bournemouth just seem too small a club to be able to survive, and I fear they will suffer heroic failure in a similar way as Ian Holloway’s Blackpool and Sean Dyche’s Burnley. In both those cases, the managers stayed loyal to the players who got the side promoted and Eddie Howe has followed that example.
Norwich have a core of players from their last spell in the Premier League and seem well organised and comfortable under the young manager Alex Neil. By many accounts they were unlucky in their opening game, a dodgy disallowed goal apparently. I think they can put that result behind them following Palace’s example from two years ago and survive despite being play-off winners.
Watford are a huge curiosity. They made lots of signings, but many of the guys that they have signed would have been known only to the most dedicated followers of European football. They have owners who also own Udinese in Italy and Granada in Spain, which could give them access to a strong pool of players available on loan. Antonio Di Natale, the hugely experienced Udinese striker could probably keep Watford up on his own. The promotion squad thrived despite a revolving door policy with managers. This speaks to a flexible and mature group, who have the right attitude despite the change all around them. I think Watford might survive as well.
That leaves two relegation spots for four teams that just avoided the drop in 2014/15. It seems as if Newcastle are beginning to change the way the club is run, and have bought new players to strengthen Steve McLaren’s squad. Georginio Wijnaldum looks impressive, and Alex Mitrovic took very little time for us to get to know him. More importantly perhaps, they have resisted the temptation to sell some of their better players, such as Krul, Coloccini and Sissoko that an ex-manager may have been interested in. I think they will be okay. As they should be.
Dick Advocaat has agreed to stay on at Sunderland. He did just about well enough last season, but I think that was due more to Queens Park Rangers and Hull City being worse. The story was the same the previous season, when Gus Poyet appeared to have given up before a late Conor Wickham inspired revival saved them. The summer transfer activity was fairly dull, Younes Kaboul hardly inspires confidence. While Defoe and Fletcher will score goals, the midfield and defence are nothing special. I think the teams at the bottom will be better this season and Sunderland will finally drop down, very possibly in a distant twentieth place.
That leaves one relegation spot for the Midlands. Villa did better under Tim Sherwood, but the loss of Benteke and Delph could be crucial. We are reminded that Villa have signed lots of new players, but none would seem to be of the quality as the players that have gone, Rudy Gestede is a bit of a beast but I cannot imagine him matching the touch and subtlety that Beneteke showed to win the game at Selhurst Park last season. Jordan Ayew, signed from League Un does not appear to be the best forward in his own family! It could be hard to attract other new players of the right quality. To me it is between Villa and Leicester for the last spot.
Leicester were right to sack Nigel Pearson, as his position was untenable after the actions of his son on the post-season tour. Pearson did seem to have a strong influence over his players, maybe they were petrified of him, and that end of season run was fantastic. The other notable departure was Esteban Cambassio, who appeared to have a fantastic influence on and off the pitch. Despite the fantastic start against Sunderland & West Ham, the appointment of Claudio Ranieri seems a huge risk. He will be much more charming with the press and with opposition players taking throw-ins but I am not sure he will enjoy the rough and tumble of a relegation fight, especially if his tinkering habits mean there is no settled team or formation. Ranieri may not have the inspirational touch that Tim Sherwood brought to Villa.
There you have it, Bournemouth, Leicester and Sunderland to go down.
