Palace Cause Concern For Emery, Howe, Guardiola And Postecoglu

When Glasnerball works, it’s difficult for opponents to cope. In the last few weeks, both Postecoglou and Eddie Howe left Slurst baffled by their team’s utterly poor performance. Guardiola, too, as he didn’t get the win he wanted and probably expected.

Even for the Premier League’s best managers, Palace playing Glasnerball is a difficult opponent. The most graphic example was perhaps the extraordinary scene in the recent league game at Villa Park. In the first couple minutes, our opponents stopped the game, openly stood on the ball, and took a good long look at how Palace lined up. Then we nicked the ball, went down the pitch and Sarr scored a cheeky opener.

What Villa did was a sign. Only 10 months into his first job in England, Glasner the tactician has won giant respect. For the third time in 7 months, Glasner forced Emery to accept Palace were the better team.

In fact, Glasner game plans put Palace in position to win matches, and being unpredictable is critical. We all know one player really should have had a hat-trick against Newcastle – and it was our right back! Talking of Muñoz, do you think it’s possible to clone his lungs? He pops up absolutely everywhere!

Glasnerball does take a heavy toll on some parts of the team though. For Glasner, game plans to win points, players have to put in prodigious amounts of energy, and Palace are currently near top of the Premier League table….. for injuries. When starters find they’re tired or hurting, a stronger bench would keep the impetus going. But this Palace squad has been paper-thin all autumn, leaving Glasner at the mercy of injuries and recoveries as he tries to bring us wins.

Is Glasnerball Back?

Game stats are starting to make it look that way. The two Newcastle games we played under Glasner this year have startling similarities – one last April as we started to really fly, the other last month.

The April win ended with Palace taking 20 shots to Newcastle’s 7. In the November draw, shots were 16-1. Very similar. In April, shots on target were 6-2. In November it was 4-0. Again, much the same. But the result was very different. The April match ended in a comfortable 2-0 win, but November was a desperate last kick draw – not the win our play deserved.

Still it feels like we’re not far away. Bit by bit, we’re seeing a return of Glasnerball. When the result finally matches the performance, Glasner (and we) will certainly all feel much better.

Pleasing Positive on the Pitch

The spine of this new team is finally starting to settle. Henderson, Lacroix and Mateta – you can feel them all growing and steadily cementing their key roles as this team’s new identity emerges.

However, in central midfield, we have been so very unlucky. Ever since the season kicked off, the beating heart of the team has sadly been the hub of all upheaval. Two spots, 7 players used so far. We’ve seen 8 different combos in 15 matches.

Only once has the pairing been unchanged from one game to the next. And Manchester City on Saturday was the first time this season the pairing that started the game stayed on the pitch together for the full 90.

Last spring and this autumn could hardly be more different. In 13 matches at the end of last season, Glasner only ever played 3 central midfield pairings. Wharton played every game, while Lerma played 4, Hughes played 8, then Guehi stepped in just for the final match. Happy days! Such a simple life, such a successful time.

Has Our Luck Turned At Last?

After 3 referee errors that cost us 4 points (Eze disallowed goal at Brentford, the ignored penalty against Liverpool, Mateta’s disallowed winner at Wolves), it was a joyous relief at last to see a referee error rebound fully in the faces of our opponents.

I’m referring to the obnoxiously obvious first half penalty decision against Will Hughes, again up at Villa Park. Was that the moment our luck changed? After Hughes’ “foul” was initially ignored by the ref, the writhing Bailey called for doctors, VAR caved, the crowd piled pressure on the ref, he caved, Henderson saved the spot kick (wow!), then from the Villa corner we swept down the pitch at top speed and Devenny placed his finish past arguably the world’s best keeper from a very sweet fast break. As a Palace breakaway, this was right up at the very top with Gallagher’s goal at Brighton.

Also, the last two games saw both Ipswich and City watch the ball come back off the post. If those had both gone in, we’d only have 10 points now instead of 13. Small margins. Big difference.

So maybe, just maybe, luck is starting to come our way. And perhaps a home Cup draw could be another good omen?

Fixture Relief Ahead?

There’s no point trying to paint lipstick on a pig. Despite the feel-good fun of watching top managers play Johnny Longface after failing to beat the Palace, facts are facts. We’ve been in the drop zone too much already, and we are now building from our third worst start since promotion – no better than our first year back in the Premier League.

The fixture list so far has yielded only two wins, and it doesn’t get easier in the rest of December. Next month, however, the outlook does appear to brighten.

By 4 January, all our home games for the season against “the Big Six” are done. 8 home games then remain until the end of the season, and Palace should have a decent chance of winning every one. We might need to. With the closing run of 4 away games we face at season’s end (Man City, Arsenal, Spurs and title favourites Liverpool), we won’t want to be too worried about points.

Does Glasner Know How To Fight A Relegation Battle?

When Roy and Ray ran the show, it felt like they had a pre-season sit down with the fixture list to sort out which games Palace absolutely had to win and which they could not lose.  Whether Hodgson knew it or not, there was a formula – Vieira didn’t see it until it was too late, but our performance at Ipswich suggests Glasner might have picked it up. If so, that would certainly be positive for Glasner. Here’s how the “Roy n Ray relegation beater formula” works:

• Divide the Premier League into top and bottom half.
• Assuming Palace finish bottom half, we play 18 games in the season against other bottom half teams.  We must win at least 8. Lose 4 or less.  This brings a minimum 30 points, or 1.67 points per match.
• That leaves 20 games against top half teams, to bring a minimum 10 points, or 0.50 points per match.

Here’s Palace’s record in recent seasons:

Boardroom Struggle Over Soon?

John Textor’s 45% shareholding is awkward, he’s unhappy to the point he wants out, and the other three main owners probably want him gone. Just adding to pressure on Textor, in a mighty shock for their supporters, his French giants Lyon have been punished by provisional relegation at the end of this season ….. for financial irregularities.

If Textor’s CPFC shares are not sold soon, we could see a power play in the boardroom if the pro-Parish faction (Steve plus Harris & Blitzer) stump up some new money to create a budget, say, to buy new players. Textor would be forced to cough up too (45% of whatever “budget” the Parish Three dictate) or sell his shares. Forced sales drive prices down.

It depends. Maybe the others want Textor out faster or they want more say in who buys Textor’s shares. We’ll have to wait and see.

Conclusion

As matches come thick and fast, what do Palace fans get for Christmas?

They get to hold their breath. On the pitch, in the boardroom, ahead of the window, it all matters. Lots.

At least, as we supporters close our eyes to sleep, as we wait, watch – and hope and worry – we all share one certainty.  Right at that moment, the eyes of Oliver Glasner are most likely wide open, plotting solutions to our difficulties. For proof of his passion for the task, his yellow card against Newcastle was perhaps the purest and most powerful.