Ever since I suggested Palace could raise this season’s target from forty points to fifty plus, we’ve all witnessed a reversal of fortunes. Just a point from four games against three bottom half teams and Manchester United.
Now, with two home games against Everton and Southampton in four days, my optimistic red and blue giggle goggles are firmly back in their box and some red hot questions demand answers.
Can we beat teams in the bottom half of the table?
The best thing about Roy was his expertise in beating teams in the bottom half of the table.
During the Roy era, 69 games were played over four seasons against teams who finished that season in the bottom half of the Premier League, and Palace won 33 of them for an average 1.71 points per game.
Under Patrick, strangely, Palace results against top-half teams have been great. Yet, here we are in December, not one win yet against a team from the bottom half. In six days starting Sunday, we play three teams from the bottom half.
Maybe this is the perfect time to rip one particular page from the Roy Hodgson playbook and make certain we take a full helping of points from Everton, Southampton and Watford.
Should the formation change?
Patrick has a limited squad, and this means our playing style is mired deeper in transition than I had thought.
When praising Patrick’s pass and press revolution, I had flagged injuries and suspensions as risk factors. Since then, we’ve seen only too clearly that James McArthur, Joachim Andersen and Joel Ward have each proved tough to replace.
This has put both the formation and Patrick’s game plan in peril. With McArthur, the 4-3-3 formation was a comfortable fit. Without him and now with Eberechi Eze back, Conor Gallagher has seemingly regressed to his West Bromwich Albion version, largely defensive in midfield. And we’ve lost our way and lost three in a row.
We need to urgently find a change that will enable this wonderful player Gallagher – and Eze and Wilfried Zaha in particular – to flourish so we can dominate games and win them.
Is it time to try the 4-2-2-2 formation widely used by managers who favour the so called gegenpress? This would enable us to have Odsonne Edouard and Zaha up front, with Eze and Gallagher just behind, with two chosen from McArthur, Will Hughes, Jeffrey Schlupp, Cheikhou Kouyate, Jairo Riedewald and Luka Milivojevic to shield the back four. Christian Benteke or Michael Olise can deputise for any of the front four.
Do we have enough top players?
Well, the squad is thin – and the truth is, more factors will soon undermine Palace’s season.
Suspensions will continue to poke holes in our squad as we head into the festive season, with Marc Guehi and Gallagher both just one booking away.
Then, from Christmas, player availability gets even trickier. FIFA rules say players needed for the African Cup of Nations must be released by 27 December. The final is not until 6 February. Even if a delay in the release date can be negotiated, Palace will likely lose more key talent to the AFCON than any other Premier League club.
Palace will lose four of the team who played on Sunday at Old Trafford, and they’ll be absent for up to eight matches – Zaha, Kouyate, Schlupp and Jordan Ayew. Meanwhile, Leeds United, Newcastle United, Norwich City and Tottenham Hotspur will be left untouched. Clearly, the AFCON will shred our resources.
When will we stop missing chances?
Whenever points slip away, every player must consider the mistakes they made. At United, the obvious culprit was Ayew for his point blank miss, but there are others. With four goals this season, Benteke has proved he can be such a force for Palace. But three headers against Newcastle, Burnley and Leeds should have been added to that tally as all were easier to score than to miss. If those missed chances had been taken, Palace would be top half and north of twenty points by now.
Edouard had an appalling miss at 1-0 against Liverpool, but he’d only just come off the bench. Perhaps it’s time to give this man the kind of run in the starting eleven that Benteke has had, and let’s see what he can really do in the Premier League.
When will the tide turn at set pieces?
Opposition free kicks and corners have best been viewed this season from behind the sofa. It’s hard to say it, but ….. remember Tony Pulis? His Palace rearguard didn’t let in one set piece goal for six months. We were that tight. So we know the right kind of practice and preparation can close this gaping hole.
As for our attacking free kicks and corners, we urgently need imagination, innovation and execution. The inevitable chip towards our tall men just isn’t bringing goals. And the last time we scored direct from a free kick was, well, can you remember? I recall a sublime Milivojevic free kick at Bournemouth, but that was dozens of games ago! Luka can’t or doesn’t do those any more.
What will the window bring? Is there a budget?
Both questions have the same answer – who knows? Yet, the fact is that no fewer than nine players (Gallagher, Kouyate, James Tomkins, McArthur, Schlupp, Benteke, Jean-Phillipe Mateta, Nathaniel Clyne and Martin Kelly) will all have to be replaced or re-signed as all are out of contract in June. This will require substantial new investment by the club, and of course, the higher position we finish this season in the league, the easier the recruitment process will be.
Thank goodness then that based on performances so far, player recruitment last summer was so successful!
Finally, a bonus question:
When will Palace get a bit of luck?
Luck changes results – it happens everywhere you look.
Last week, Brighton lifted a point at West Ham after Fornals’ shot hit the bar and Maupay scored with a late Benteke style overhead kick that could’ve gone anywhere but instead found the net. In their very next game, a 97th minute goal gave Brighton another point at Southampton.
Last week too, Wolves’ Traore slammed a shot off the underside of the bar, and Burnley escaped with a point from a game where they only mustered one shot on target.
Saturday saw Burnley keeper Nick Pope drop the ball on Callum Wilson’s foot when he could’ve and should’ve punched it far, far away – and there it is, Newcastle got an early Christmas present and their first win of the season.
On Monday, Arsenal’s Nketiah headed against the post, the ball rebounded, hit the keeper’s behind and incredibly bounced out of play the wrong side of the post. Blind luck. And Everton came back to collect all three points.
Ever since a big deflection turned Gallagher’s shot into a goal against Wolves on 6 November, Palace have had precious little luck.
At Burnley, for example, Zaha’s 20-yard left-foot thunderbolt was literally a ball bursting volley that exploded back off the bar – it could have been the game winner. And two of our three losses in the past week came against teams enjoying the so-called “new manager bounce”. Most seasons, any club might run into this phenomenon once, but never twice in a week.
Now, the FA Cup draw has given us the “luck” of a quick trip to the Den. Old or New, we didn’t need that. In theory, Palace should take it all in their stride, win and move on. But Millwall away almost never works that way.
Luck is way overdue to fall into our lap again.
To sum up then, these are all burning questions that us fans worry about. Aside from bringing some luck to our games, I’m certain that Patrick and the board are tackling them all right now. Let’s hope they are further forward than we can see in finding effective solutions to get us back on track to win some games, bag some points and climb back up the table.
