This week’s edition of ‘Palace In Perspective’ is the second of a two part article from Neil Carter who predicts how the the rest of the Premier League season will play out. Here is the link to the first part that was online last week.
This article was written in the week of the FA cup third round and before the last round of Premier League games.
After those games, lots of teams have changed positions, Palace are bottom again, and West Brom have a new manager. But I have not changed my conclusions.
I believe fundamental problems remain with the clubs I have predicted to be relegated. I feel strength of schedule will be important and I think that Palace’s easier schedule, defensive strength and team spirit should be enough. I do wish we scored more goals though.
The narrow gap between tenth and twentieth, and the number of games each side has to play against lower half rivals mean that teams will change positions in the table all the time. So we should all take the long-term view and not panic each time results seem to go against us.
No, really. We should.
Back to the team by team analysis.
Stoke City
Owner sanity – the Stoke owner is Peter Coates, whose family’s fortune is built on online gambling (bet365). He has taken the club from the third tier to the first, built a new ground, and spent a lot of money to keep them there. Fair play to him. Perhaps the worst criticism of him is the curious decision to appoint Mark Hughes to succeed the previous manager.
No. of managers (1) – Hughes hasn’t pulled up trees but neither are Stoke far below expectations. No needs to replace him at this point.
The X-Factor – potentially it could be that the team could be decimated as Pulis grabs his old players. Maybe a couple might want to live further south, but I suspect Stoke’s defensive core – Begovic in goal, Huth & Shawcross will stay where they are, and that is a better defence than the rest of the bottom half, except when they are up against Luis Suarez!
Strength of Schedule: Not Too Bad – Stoke City only have to visit Man City & Chelsea of the top sides
Prediction: 10th-13th
Sunderland
Owner Sanity – Ellis Shaw is an American hedge fund manager who has invested heavily in buying many many players. He has gone for personality managers (Keane, Bruce, O’Neill, Di Canio) but bland players, except for local hero Adam Johnson who has surprisingly failed to impress. Di Canio may have been nuts but he was right about dropping the thuggish Cattermole, a relic of long gone days. Surely Huddlestone would have signed for Sunderland ahead of Hull at the time. Too late now.
No. of Managers (2) – Di Canio was fun while he lasted … for the rest of us, but sadly Paolo oversaw the game at Selhurst which means we don’t get it give Poyet the Selhurst welcome we would wish.
X-factor: it is that they have won against top teams. But that is surely small sample size curiosity. They have a lot of tough away games to come. They can’t play Fulham every week!
Strength of Schedule: Toughest of the lot – Sunderland have to play all the potential Champions League sides away from home. Have only played away at Tottenham and Everton so far.
Prediction: relegation
Swansea
Owner sanity – we like our ownership model, consisting of local businessmen-cum-fans, but nationally Swansea are hailed as having the best ownership model, as they have 20% fan ownership in addition to the local businessmen who run the club. Even a bizarre incident where the oldest ball-boy in the world, who just happened to be the son of a director, refused to give the ball back to Juan Mata, failed to take the sheen off that view.
No. of Managers – Swansea don’t sack managers. They tend to lose them to bigger clubs, although the number of bigger clubs managers can go to has diminished.
X-factor – as Palace fans we are probably surprised to see Swansea struggle after they beat us so comfortably at the start of the season. Their style of play and squad are not necessarily suited to the winter months and they have played more games than the other bottom half teams because of the Europa League. But their best player, Michu, should be back just as the weather improves, and should lead them to safety.
Strength of Schedule: Very tough – Man U, Liverpool, Arsenal, Everton, Newcastle
Prediction: 10th-13th
West Brom
Owner sanity – West Brom have a more traditional owner model of the local owner. But Jeremy Peace is a public schoolboy and merchant banker, rather than a factory owner, and has brought modern thinking to the running of the club. They have had a director of football who is not a washed out ex-manager, but someone with a broad scouting and coaching knowledge, designed to compliment the skills of the First Team Coach. But …
No. of Managers (2) – Mr Peace fired Steve Clarke, who seemed to be doing an okay job a few weeks back. It seems he did not have a successor in mind, and West Brom continued to struggle near the bottom although they had a good win over Newcastle on New Year’s Day. The Baggies have now filled their managerial vacancy with Pepe Mel, former manager of La Liga’s Real Betis. His achievements at Betis were very impressive and their decline this season would appear to be the result of a summer fire sale by the board, rather than his limitations. Pepe Mel doesn’t appear to have much time to impose his style to bring in players, but nor did Maurico Pochettino last season.
X-factor – You look at the squad, even the slightly weakened team they put out against us in the Cup, and you think that West Brom are too good to go down. Foster is a good keeper, they have a solid defence, good midfielders and lots of options upfront, including young Berahino, who looks rather handy. Roy Hodgson did a good job there before he took the England job, so all they probably need is a sensible hand on the tiller.
Prediction: 10th-13th
Strength of Schedule: Not too bad – Man City and Arsenal only
West Ham
Madness of Owners – I’ve no problem with David Gold. As a local resident I thought he would be a good prospective owner for Palace but at the same time he is a West Ham fan so fair play to him for buying them alongside David Sullivan. If you had a view of the main Car Park at the West Ham game, Sullivan has a spectacularly shiny Red Rolls-Royce with a preposterously dressed chauffeur. If other owners seem like Bond villains, Sullivan seems stuck in an airport novel from the 70’s. Both David’s seem rather besotted or intimidated by one bigger man
No. of Managers (1) – Big Sam himself. It does seem cliched to say that he wants a big bloke upfront and Kevin Nolan there for the rebounds. The thing is that Carroll isn’t there and Nolan seems to be ageing fast. Mark Noble is ok and Ravel Morrison very talented but they aren’t enough. The Cardiff result was clearly a bounce back after the awful cup thrashings, but that win was against one of the other teams I believe will go down.
X-Factor – Andy Carroll. And that is the problem. If West Ham have Andy Carroll at his peak for 15 games they will be safe. He is a beast. But he has only ever been at his peak for that long once and that was just before Liverpool paid £35m for him and to this day Mike Ashley sits in his lair, counting the money and cackling with laughter.
Strength of Schedule: Not Too Bad – only Arsenal, Man City and Everton away.
Prediction: Relegation
