We all wish we could spend big in January writes Kevin De Vries.
Every year we have underdog clubs that sneak up the table in the first half of the season. This season has been no different with Southampton and West Ham United playing the role of giant killers while the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Everton currently sit below them in the table.
I doubt many of you believe that the table will look the same come matchday 38, so why do these first half warriors tend to fade?
The answer I hear the most often is that the big clubs can spend in January. With ridiculous spending sprees, many believe that positions in the table can be purchased. Individual cases show this is not the case as three of the four largest leaps in the table came at £6 million or cheaper while Chelsea spent £75 million over the past three winter windows only to finish where they were or worse in December.
Admittedly, using the table as a barometer is a little flawed as you cannot finish any higher than first, so let us look at point tallies.
Who would you guess has the most success in the second half of seasons over the last five? Did you guess Arsenal? If so, you are wrong. It is actually Everton. On average Everton finish seven points higher in the second half than the first, all while spending just £12 million total. So what effect does January spending actually have on the league? Let us delve into it in this edition of ….
FACT TIME!!!
Over the past five seasons in January:
- The title winners spent just £13.5 million in total
- Chelsea have spent the most with £148.5 million, the year they won the league they spent zero
- Teams that spent £5 million or more finished, on average, with two more points in the second half of the season than teams that did not spend.
- Four clubs have spent £30 million or more. All four moved up the table and gained points, but none improved to a crucial position (safety, top four or champions).
So while it is not technically required for success, it does seem that January spending is directly related to an improvement in the second half of the season.
In theory, had Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur spent just £5 million in January 2012 they would have won the title and a Champions League spot respectively. Fortunately, teams that assume they cannot keep the pace do not have to spend tremendous amounts of money to stay in the hunt as is commonly perceived.
With the margin between success and failure being so thin, any investment in January can pay great dividends.
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