Possession does not win matches writes Kevin De Vries.
When Andre Villas-Boas came to Tottenham Hotspur, fans were given an easy concept to latch onto. Holding onto the ball will secure the win.
Unfortunately, this philosophy has remained at the club ever since. Tim Sherwood cleverly observed – ‘If you don’t lose the ball, you ain’t got to get it back!‘ As such, fans were expected to accept disappointing results and be grateful that the team could at least manage a bit of ball retention.
Spurs then went out and hired the prodigious Mauricio Pochettino whose Southampton side led the Premier League with a 58.6% rate of possession. The result? Tottenham have now had a league high seven matches with 60% possession or greater this season, resulting in just two wins – Queens Park Rangers and Aston Villa.
It seems like it would be beneficial to always have the ball, but the concept of possession football does have its detractors. Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho maintains that ‘Whoever has the ball has fear. Whoever does not have it is therefore stronger’. True to form, his first place Chelsea side rank just 8th in ball retention this season at 54.1%.
Should retaining the ball be an objective? Does holding possession actually increase your odds of winning a Premier League match?
Let us investigate in this edition of … FACT TIME!
- Last season teams that won possession won 55% of their matches
- Last season the top five teams in possession were Southampton, Manchester City, Swansea City, Arsenal and Liverpool
- Respectively they finished 8th, 1st, 12th, 4th and 2nd. An average of 5.4
- This season the top five in possession are Arsenal, Manchester City, Everton, Manchester United and Liverpool
- They are currently placed 6th, 3rd, 10th, 7th and 11th. An average of of 7.4
- Of the six matches this season where a team has held more than 70% possession, the dominant side has won just three times
The problem with these statistics is that they are a tad incongruous. With only a slight advantage in win probability, the best possession sides both in and out of the top ten, and dominant match performances resulting in losses it seems that possession statistics are barely linked to results at all.
The more I look at it the more I believe that what possession statistics are actually showing is the performance and tactics of opposing teams. Sides that are considered ‘superior‘ are often allowed space to operate in the midfield by opponents who set up to defend the final third. While this defensive adjustment does allow the other team more possession, it is meant to be meaningless possession that slows play. The point being that holding possession is not the reason for a club’s success, but is rather an indicator of it.
There are simply too many grey areas with possession statistics for them to be held as gospel. I love statistics and think that football can, for the most part, be explained with numbers. Unfortunately, we are using the wrong numbers.
What is your view on the increased use of statistics in the game? Does it give a true reflection of a game? Leave your comments for Kevin below this article, on our Facebook page or tweet.
