Host of the EPL Roundtable podcast and avid Spurs fan Kevin De Vries returns with his regular feature. He this week looks at a concept that is difficult for an American to get to grips with. Relegation.
Relegation is a necessary evil.
As an American I was unfamiliar with the concept of relegation until I started following football.
In the USA there is so much territory to cover and so few teams that such a system could never work. The existence of elite amateur athletics (NCAA) already fulfills the market for ‘lower‘ leagues, which allows some professional teams to consistently underperform.
If an owner of, let’s say, the Jacksonville Jaguars was more focused on making a decent profit than fielding a decent team he’d be able to effectively maintain his franchise’s mediocrity for years. Can you imagine what would happen if someone with such a mindset was allowed into the English set-up?! Don’t imagine too hard, his name is Shahid Khan and he owns freshly relegated Fulham.
The best thing about the relegation system is that it engenders competitive balance. Relegation is a far better method than that of US sports wherein less than half of all teams play meaningful games beyond the midway point of the year. The threat of going down keeps things interesting until the very last day of the season.
This of course launches an interesting discussion – ‘If you are in the relegation battle late in the season, should you change managers?’
It’s often been discussed on the EPL Roundtable podcast (shameless plug) without resolution, but that’s exactly what I’m here to give you.
Prepare yourself for another installment of …
FACT TIME!
Over the past five Premier League seasons 17 clubs have changed manager while placed 15th or lower.
- 8 stayed up
- 9 were relegated
- 6 improved upon their clubs previous position
- 0.8 places were gained in the league table on average
That last stat looks even better than it should as you cannot finish below 20th, which caps negative impact.
Over that same five year period, of the fifteen relegated clubs:
- 7 stayed with one manager
- 8 changed managers
What have we learned from this? That it doesn’t really matter.
If you’re in the relegation battle, regardless of whether or not you change your manager, you have about a 50-50 shot of staying in the Premier League. Sorry if you’re disappointed by the conclusive inconclusiveness of these statistics.
If it makes you feel any better, I was hoping they’d be more decisive as well! I guess, what it does confirm is that for all the heartache it causes, the relegation system is the best way to ensure that every match counts.
For every tear shed in sadness, there is a tear shed of joy. As the Premier League says goodbye to Cardiff City, Fulham, and Norwich City (barring some crazy miracle), we welcome Leicester City, Burnley and and the vicious cycle spins on and on.
No-one wants it to be their club that goes down, but it’s necessary for the health of the league. Just remember that if you find yourself in the relegation zone, be sure to either keep or sack your manager.
