With the PFA Player of the Year finalists having just been announced, let us take an in-depth statistical analysis towards deciding who deserves to win this prestigious award.
Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur)
Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal)
Diego Costa (Chelsea)
Phillippe Coutinho (Liverpool)
David De Gea (Manchester United)
They have all had great moments this season, but who has impressed the most? Let us break down the nominees.
Eden Hazard
The Chelsea talisman has been a bit underrated this season with newcomers Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa offering significant contributions. Make no mistake who the catalyst is though as even his presence on the left shifts the opposing defence his way which allows much more space for his teammates. If he can do that without the ball, what can he do with it?
Well, out of the PotY candidates Eden Hazard leads the pack in:
- Assists (8)
- Pass Completion (87%)
- Chances Created (88)
- Take-Ons (148)
Hazard already helped Chelsea to win the Capital One Cup and has them on track to win the title. I do think it will be hard to decide for voters whether Hazard or Costa deserve to be selected which may leave both a few votes short.
Harry Kane
The 20 year old striker has become one of the most romantic football stories in recent memory. Raised as a Tottenham Hotspur supporter, he never registered much interest as a mid-level talent who struggled on loan at clubs like Leicester City and Norwich City. Despite not being rated highly, Pochettino’s hand was forced by the misfiring Soldado and the frozen out Adebayor. When Kane was given his chance, boy did he take it!
Since his first Premier League start this season on November 9th, he has scored 19 goals while his competitors have:
- Hazard (9)
- Costa (9)
- Sanchez (6)
- Coutinho (3)
- De Gea (0)
Not only has Kane scored more goals than all the other finalists combined (looking at you De Gea), but they have been meaningful goals as well. Including the braces he scored to beat London rivals Chelsea and Arsenal, Harry Kane has won Tottenham a league leading 25 points. If Kane falls short of winning Player of the Year, he should be a lock in for Young Player of the year.
Diego Costa
Since his arrival from Atletico Madrid, the Brazilian/Spaniard has scored 19 goals and converted his chances at a league leading rate of 68%. Costa and Fabregas have both made a huge impact in their debut seasons and should be applauded for making a jump that has proven hard for many switching over from La Liga. However, despite being a part of one of the league’s best attacking units, Costa can be a bit one dimensional.
Compared to the other finalists, Costa ranks last in:
- Assists (3)
- Successful Passes (496)
- Take-ons (28)
As I mentioned earlier, Costa and Hazard may end up taking away enough of each others votes to allow someone else to slip in and snatch the Player of the Year award.
Alexis Sanchez
One of the biggest transfer coups of the summer was Arsenal’s capture of Chilean superstar Alexis Sanchez. With many players getting off to a slow start, Sanchez almost single-handedly kept Arsenal in the chase for top four. While Arsenal have found great form, Sanchez has faded a touch down the stretch, but his first half was tremendous enough to warrant being named a finalist.
Unfortunately for Alexis Sanchez, he boasts neither the creative influence or statistics of Hazard nor the scoring tally of Costa or Kane. If the player of the year award was more along the lines of ‘Most Valuable Player’ I think Sanchez would likely win it, but it is not so he likely will not.
Phillippe Coutinho
It looks as though Coutinho is thoroughly outclassed by the other finalists, it is only because he is. While football metrics have grown past the simplicity of goals and assists, Coutinho’s peripherals do little to justify the fact that he has only notched four goals and four assists to this point. His chances at winning Young Player of the Year are also slim, as Harry Kane seems guaranteed.
David De Gea
There is no doubting that the Spaniard has had an incredible season, but hard to make a case for him being the best player in the Premier League when he may not even be the best at his position. The last goalkeeper to win PFA Player of the Year was Peter Shilton in the 1977/78 season and the player that breaks that streak would need to at least lead the league in saves and clean sheets to have a chance.
Now that we have been introduced to the candidates let us see how they would stack up historically in this weeks edition of ….
FACT TIME!
Over the past ten years:
- The breakdown of winners by position is Striker (4), Midfielder (5), Defender (1), Goalkeeper (0).
- All four award-winning strikers scored 26+ goals, with only Rooney not winning the Golden Boot.
- Kane and Costa both currently have 19 goals.
- Of the midfielders, the winners had on average 15 goals and 6 assists.
- Of this seasons midfield nominees, their goals and assists – Sanchez (14/8), Hazard (12/8), Coutinho (4/4).
- Only one player (Ryan Giggs) has won PFA Player of the Year without winning at least one Player of the Month award.
- Harry Kane and Diego Costa are the only finalists to have won Player of the Month …
- … and Kane has done it twice.
With these current and historical factors taken into account, it seems that we have boiled the race down to a top three of Eden Hazard, Harry Kane, and Alexis Sanchez. Considering the statistics above Kane will likely be the winner (especially if he reaches the 26 goal mark).
However, even as a Tottenham supporter with facts on my side, I think it would be more appropriate to make Kane the Young Player of the Year. Either by compound statistics or even the eye-test, few would disagree that Eden Hazard is the best player in the Premier League and throughout this season he has done nothing but confirm what we already knew.
