Statistically Speaking

This is yet another article about who will make the Champions League places. 

Some of the more popular ‘Who Will Make the Top Four?’ articles have stated that Tottenham Hotspur, currently 7th in the table, have the easiest run-in.

While this may be true based on opponents placement in the table, every Spurs supporter knows that we are historically poor against sides we ‘should be beating’. To contrast this, people often compliment sides such as Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Liverpool for beating ‘lesser’ opposition and putting teams away.

Is this actually the case though? Let us forego the formalities and jump straight into …

FACT TIME! 

Of fixtures remaining … 

Arsenal

• Newcastle United away is Arsenal’s best chance at points as they have not lost at St. James’ Park since the 2005/06 season.
• Manchester United away has proven to be the most trying fixture for Arsenal as they have lost at Old Trafford seven straight times dating back to 2006.

Liverpool

• Stoke City away has proven to be a difficult fixture for Liverpool winning just one of the last five trips to the Britannia.
• Liverpool have not had great success against the clubs they will face the rest of the season having beaten no side more than three times in the last five seasons.

Manchester City 

Over the past five seasons:

• Manchester City have been historically rampant in their remaining fixtures with an impressive record of 37-2-6.
• City have won every home fixture against West Bromwich Albion, Queens Park Rangers, Southampton, Aston Villa and West Ham United. 

Manchester United

• Manchester United have dominated Arsenal at home of late and winning this match may be the difference between 3rd and 4th.
• United have the hardest schedule facing three sides still in the chase for top four as well as league leaders Chelsea. 

Southampton

These statistics are a little skewed as they have only been back in the Premier League for the past three seasons. That being said …

• Despite their recent successes, Southampton have massively struggled against many of the teams left on their fixture list, having only won two fixtures against them (Hull City and Aston Villa).
• In their previous encounters with Everton (a), Tottenham (h), and Chelsea (a) Southampton have failed to win a point and have a -9 goal difference. 

Tottenham

• Playing Aston Villa at White Hart Lane represents Tottenham’s best chance at points as they have not lost this fixture since the 1999/00 season!
• Conversely, Tottenham’s trip to Goodison Park will likely end in tears as they have not beat Everton away since 2006/07.

Having mapped out these teams past performances in their remaining fixtures, these contenders project to gain, in order:

• Manchester City 22 points
• Arsenal 16 points
• Tottenham 16 points
• Liverpool 15 points
• Manchester United 15 points
• Southampton 9 points

Let us not stop there though. Tottenham have fallen short of Champions League football a lot lately, causing many to think they cannot take the pressure, while North London rivals Arsenal have proven they can finish down the stretch. This sentiment has been echoed by pretty much everyone over the past five years despite being factually incorrect as you will see in the second edition of …

FACT TIME!

In their last nine matches of the past five seasons:

• Arsenal have the greatest point tally with 23 points in 2013 beating out …
• Tottenham (18 points) who made the top four but missed out on the Champions League the following season due to Chelsea winning the Champions league title. Definitely not still bitter about that.
• Liverpool (2011/12) and Arsenal (2010/11) have the joint worst points tally earning just ten points. 

But who is actually the best down the stretch? Let us look at the five year average of points earned in the last nine matches of the Premier League season. 

• Manchester United 18.4
• Manchester City 18.2
• Tottenham 16
• Arsenal 15.8
• Liverpool 15.8
• Southampton 14

That is right, Tottenham are actually better than Arsenal late in the season!

Now for the fun part. If we average how the teams contending for European football have fared in their remaining fixtures and how they historically perform down the stretch we can mathematically predict that the final standings will look like this:

Even pulling from two different data sets, Arsenal and Manchester United would still be level on points. Fortunately, we do not do things halfway here on this regular ‘Let’s Be Honest’ feature so who would win on projected goal difference? Manchester United would finish third with a +54 goal difference compared to Arsenal with +41. 

So there you have it. Without over used cliches or outdated rhetoric we have arrived at a conclusion supported by numbers and facts.

Let me be the first to congratulate Manchester City, Arsenal, and Manchester United on qualifying for the Champions League 2015/16!