The Christmas schedule and its feverishly action packed map of activities is once again almost upon us, and as such so is the widely held belief that this is where seasons are made or broken writes Donogh Hurley.
To be fair to the generalisation, there is some truth in it. The Premier League table following this period should begin to take a more concrete form. Strugglers begin to become even further isolated from those striving for top half finishes. Similarly the top four or five will likely make their move, much like a cyclist riding the Tour de France might do in search of a stage victory, leaving the impoverished peloton in their wake.
It is beginning to take a bit of shape already. Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal are beginning to creep upwards in pursuit of the top two, while early pacesetters West Ham United and Southampton seemed to have come unstuck somewhat and are beginning to find their true level.
This in itself acts as evidence enough as to how crucial Christmas is for clubs, not least Palace. As Palace head into the festive period with a tricky trip to the Etihad on Saturday, it is hard to envisage how the following two games will pan out. Southampton, reeling from a dip in form are somewhat of an unknown entity. With a defeat to Burnley and elimination from the League Cup at the hands of lowly Sheffield United, has their season began to unravel? Following on from that, the trip to Loftus Road is another in an abundance of must not lose games for Palace between here and the end of the season.
Herein lies the worry. Much of Palace’s might last season lay in the ability to beat those around them both home and away. Hull City fell twice as did West Ham, Aston Villa and Cardiff City with numerous others falling foul to the Pulis revolution on the run to safety. What is concerning is that some of the points that have already been dropped in comparison to last year. Villa and Sunderland have both come to Selhurst Park and snatched points, and it is abundantly clear that Palace need clinical reinforcements to our misfiring frontline.
But on the surface, things appear to be okay. Palace are two points better off than they were last season entering into the same period, which saw them miss out on a result at Manchester City, snatch a win at Villa on Boxing day, after being humbled by Newcastle United in the first of the Christmas games on what was one of the low points of the entire campaign at a wet and miserable Selhurst.
This year, you could have to imagine the target is to take four points from the next run of games to ensure Warnock’s men can keep their heads bobbing above the water. However, having dropped points in some crucial games already, Palace might just have set themselves up for an excruciating second half of the season.
If we say theoretically that Palace scrape a minimum of four points over Christmas, it will leave the side three points better off at the halfway mark, on nineteen points after nineteen games, compared to last year’s tally of sixteen. Looking at the remaining nineteen games, Warnock will no doubt be looking at what games are going to be crucial to ensure survival.
While this model certainly is not scientific or reliable, let us try apportioning points to games that match up to last year’s corresponding fixtures. For the sake of continuity, we will substitute results against the relegated sides with the clubs that took their place. On that basis, Palace’s non-scientific and in no way accurate season total would lead to an additional seventeen points, amounting to a final points total of thirty-six.
That total of points would have been enough to beat the drop last season, leaving Palace level with fourth bottom West Bromwich Albion. As for this season, whether that would suffice remains to be seen, but with no standout abomination of a team as was the case with Cardiff and Fulham last year, it looks set to be a real scrap at the bottom in the second half of the year.
Burnley are beginning to show the Sean Dyche spirit that got them here in the first place. Queens Park Rangers have gradually moved away from laughing stock territory thanks to Charlie Austin’s goals. Villa, Sunderland and West Brom have all picked up decent results of late, while Leicester City and Hull seem to be the two distinctly poor teams over the last few weeks.
It is no secret (as Neil Warnock must be the worst man in the world for keeping schtum) that Palace are in the market for players in January, with a striker and a left back high priority. But worrying too will be the departure of Yannick Bolasie and Mile Jedinak on international duty and the holes that will leave in a side struggling for consistency.
The January signings last season proved inspired (even if all Tom Ince contributed was the goal and assist on his debut) with Joe Ledley and Scott Dann helping solidify a resurgent Palace side. But do we really believe Warnock has the nous to bring in the right men? This is after all the man who swapped one Glenn Murray for Kevin Doyle and a returning Andy Johnson.
Performances against Spurs and Liverpool lately certainly offer encouragement that a bit of luck and more effective finishing should see Palace through Christmas okay. But the two notable home defeats to Villa and Sunderland certainly create more reason for pessimism.
What do Palace need aside from luck? Everyone has an opinion, and no one really knows WHO we need. The question is, does the man controlling the ship know? Warnock did not have time in August to bring in enough cover in key positions. Perhaps it is more worrying that in January, he will.
The magical forty point mark is always the barometer for survival in the Premier League. Do Palace have enough in their armoury to stay up again? The optimist in me says yes, while the pessimist has thrown the calculator and form book out the window and is going along for the ride.
Whatever your views on the matter, it is certainly going to be a much bumpier ride than last year.
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